Business cycle dating committee national bureau
The program was organized by Jim Stock and Lars Svensson.Selected papers were published in the The 24th annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, was held in Dublin, Ireland, June 8-9, 2001, hosted by Vincent Hogan, University College, Dublin.Indeed, in dating business cycles, the NBER does not use this rule or focus on movements in quarterly real GDP. Lansing, (2003-17; June 20, 2003) is another insightful article into the behavior of the economy during the 2001 recession and into current expansion.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community." Many of the Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers have also been NBER Research Associates, including the former NBER President and Harvard Professor, Martin Feldstein. Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Mitchell. In the early 1940s, Kuznets' work on national income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity.The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, so the committee refers almost exclusively to monthly indicators.The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions.
It also is important to wait long enough to identify the trough in the economy that signifies the beginning of an expansion.In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage of manufacturing and goods: (1) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and trade sectors stated in real terms, adjusted for price changes, and (2) industrial production.Graphical Illustration The chart below shows the behavior over the business cycle of the monthly annualized growth rate for seasonally adjusted payroll employment.The broadest monthly indicator is employment in the entire economy.The committee generally also studies another monthly indicator of economy-wide activity, personal income less transfer payments, in real terms, adjusted for price changes.
Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.